China's sawmill market in early 2026

China's sawmill market in early 2026: Taicang signals balance and price growth potential

    The analysis of data from the key logistics hub, the port of Taicang (Jiangsu Province), allows us to draw optimistic conclusions about the state of the Chinese sawmill market in early 2026. After a difficult year in 2025, marked by a significant decline in imports, the industry is entering a stabilization phase, and the balance of reserves and consumption creates the prerequisites for price increases with the onset of the spring construction season.

2025 results: recession that laid the foundation for recovery

    According to preliminary data, imports of softwood lumber to China in 2025 amounted to about 14.51 million m3, which is 12.7% lower than in 2024. This is a significant reduction, but it has led to a healthier market situation. The market has been "cleared" of excess stocks, and is now entering 2026 with a much healthier supply and demand structure.

New Year's Eve activity: everyone is stocking up

    December and the first half of January showed unusually high activity for the cold season. Shipments of lumber to consumers in December exceeded November figures, while shipments from ports remained active in the first half of January.

    The main driver of this dynamic is the traditional preparation for the Chinese New Year. Companies sought to build up product stocks before the long holiday holidays to ensure uninterrupted operation after the resumption of business activity. By January 26, just before the holidays, activity naturally decreased.

Key indicator: stocks have reached optimal levels

    The main positive signal for the market is the ratio of inventories to consumption, which currently stands at 74 days. This is a much more balanced indicator compared to the tense situation that persisted for most of 2025.

• - Coniferous forest reserves in Chinese ports: steadily declining, reaching 2.49 million m3 as of January 23.
• - Daily shipments to consumers: remain at a good level — 61.8 thousand m3.

    This balance creates a classic prerequisite for price growth: supply is not excessive, demand is stable.

Import discipline: suppliers do not create pressure

    A critical factor for the coming months is the behavior of key exporting countries. If the market does not experience a sharp increase in supplies from New Zealand, Russia, Canada and Europe before and immediately after the Chinese holidays, then with the arrival of spring and the seasonal revival of construction activity, prices are likely to go up.

    So far, there are no signs of "overstocking" the market.:

• In the week of 26.01-01.02, only 219 thousand m3 of New Zealand timber is expected to arrive at Chinese ports, which is below average.
• January lumber stocks in ports increased slightly, by only 1.7%, despite a slight surge in arrivals at the beginning of the month. By January 26, average daily receipts had stabilized.
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Key market indicators of Taicang Port:

Fundamental factor: the construction sector is giving restrained signals

    Chinese analysts expect home sales to decline by 6% in 2026, which is better than the previous year. Investment in housing construction is projected to fall by 11% year-on-year.

The key conclusion: 

    The gap is narrowing, and the pace of decline is slowing. Although it is too early to talk about a full-fledged recovery of the real estate market, stabilization and improvement of dynamics create a positive background for demand for lumber. The construction sector remains the largest consumer, and even a slight improvement in its performance can support prices.

Forecast and conclusions for market participants

    Based on the analysis of Taicang Port data, the following conclusions can be drawn:

1. - The market is healthy: The stock-to-consumption ratio (74 days) is close to optimal. The market has cleared of the surpluses of 2024-2025.
2. - Import discipline is maintained: Key suppliers (New Zealand, Russia, Canada, Europe) are not creating an oversupply yet, which maintains the balance.
3. - Price growth potential: With the onset of spring and the activation of the construction sector, there is a high probability of price increases. Importers and traders who did not have time to build stocks before the holidays may have to buy at higher prices.
4. - The construction sector is stabilizing: The projected decline in home sales and investment is slowing, which creates the basis for a recovery in demand in the second half of the year.

Tags: #China #Taicang #sawmill market #lumber #import_wood #construction sector #market_analysis #price forecast

Edited Moderator (March 8, 2026 18:55:47)