China's Imported Lumber Market: Moderation persists at the end of July
1. Prices: stability under stock pressure
- Current price level:
- Softwood lumber in Taicang and Qingdao ports:
- Taicang: Russian pine KD — $300-330/m3, Canadian SPF — $350-380/m3
- Qingdao: European spruce/pine KD — $340-370/m3 (without fluctuations since July)
Deterrent factor: Taicang reserves in June — ~140万 m3 (+18% of normal)
2. Demand: caution in the construction sector
Real estate downturn: new projects + 10% YoY (January-May 2025)
The repair season supports the demand for furniture materials
State support for “green” construction has not been scaled yet
3. Import flows: volume correction
Wood imports: 17% YoY (May 2025)
TOP suppliers: Russia (25-30%), New Zealand (18%), Europe (15%)
Traders reduce purchases: 50% in Shandong vs 2021
, Forecast and recommendations
Trend change factors:
Launching infrastructure projects (CLT panels)
Effectiveness of the mortgage incentive policy
Furniture exports peak in August-September (demand for containers)
WoodResource Recommendations:
For importers:
Avoid long-term contracts until September.
Processors:
Shift the focus to high-value-added products (FSC-certified furniture boards)
📌 Key market indicators (July 2025)
| Parameter | Taicang | Qingdao |
| Coniferous stocks (m3) | 138,000 | 92,000 |
| Price: Russian pine ($/m3) | 300-330 | 310-325 |
| Price: canad. SPF ($/m3) | 350-380 | 345-375 |
| Average daily demand | - 8% yoy | - 5% yoy |
🔎 Conclusion
• The market is teetering on the edge of oversupply
• No drastic price changes are expected until the end of August
• Key triggers: infrastructure projects, furniture exports, logistical changes
Search tags:
进口木材价格, 太仓木材库存, 青岛木材市场, 俄罗斯木材, 加拿大木材
Sources:
海关总署, 木头云
国家统计局, 木材之家
期货日报, 纸视界
千里目, 新浪财经
Translated by «Yandex.Translator»
Edited Moderator (July 24, 2025 12:36:42)
