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The crisis of the Finnish LPC opens up opportunities for Russian exports

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#1 Dec. 7, 2025 19:58:43

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The crisis of the Finnish LPC opens up opportunities for Russian exports

The crisis of the Finnish timber industry opens up opportunities for Russian exports: pulp and cardboard production fell by 13-18%

The Finnish timber industry, Russia's key competitor in the European market, faced a sharp decline in production in the third quarter of 2025. According to the Finnish Forestry Industry Association, the recession has affected all major segments.

Key recession indicators (Q3 2025 to Q3 2024)
Production dynamics in the main segments:

IndicatorDynamicsVolume in the third quarter of 2025
Pulp production-13,7%1.6 million tons
Cardboard production-18,2%0.8 million tons
Lumber production-3,9%2.5 million m3
The cost of exporting timber products-7,5%3 billion euros

Causes of the crisis
The association's chief economist, Maarit Lindstrom, attributes the downturn to the general uncertainty in the global economy, exacerbated by the increase in US duties. Weak demand in the construction market continues to put pressure on lumber and plywood manufacturers.

Implications for the industry
The situation has led to massive equipment downtime and staff reductions. For example, the Metsä Group announced the layoff of 500 employees and a two-fold reduction in contracts with contractors. The Institute of Natural Resources of Finland does not predict a significant improvement in demand in 2026.

Conclusions for the Russian LPC
The reduction in production from one of the largest European players creates a window of opportunity for Russian exporters, especially in the pulp and cardboard segments. However, the continued weakness of pan-European demand requires flexibility from Russian companies and the search for alternative markets.

Opportunities for Russian exports
• Increased supply of pulp to the European market
• Expansion of cardboard exports
• Exploiting a vacant market niche
• Diversification of export flows

Risks and limitations
• Weak pan-European demand
• The need for flexibility in market conditions
• Search for alternative sales markets

Tags: #Finland #NLPC crisis #cellulose export #russia_lpc #competition #European market
Переведено «Яндекс.Переводчиком»

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