China's Sawmill Market 2026

China's Sawmill Market 2026: Balance of supply and demand in Taicang Port

China | 02.02.2026 11:52

Data on the key logistics hub, Taicang Port, allows us to draw the first conclusions about the situation on the Chinese lumber market in early 2026. The import of softwood lumber in 2025 amounted to approximately 14.51 million m3, which is 12.7% lower than in 2024.

Despite the seasonal cold snap, shipments of products to end consumers in December showed an increase compared to November. Activity continued in the first half of January. This dynamic is probably related to the traditional New Year's Eve purchases by enterprises seeking to provide themselves with raw materials before the holidays. By January 26, business activity had decreased slightly.

Key market indicators for the end of January:

Forecast and fundamental factors:

The forecast for the coming months will depend on the volume of imports. If the market does not experience a sharp increase in supplies of lumber from New Zealand and lumber from Russia, Canada and Europe before the start of the Chinese New Year holidays, then prices can be expected to rise with the onset of spring and the traditional increase in construction activity. So far, there are no signs of a "blockage" of the market.

Fundamental demand determines the construction sector. According to local analysts, the following changes may occur in 2026::

• Residential property sales: possible decrease by 6%.
• Investment in housing construction: a possible 11% drop in annual terms.

It is important to note that the pace of the expected decline is slowing down, which indicates a gradual stabilization, although it is too early to talk about a full-fledged market recovery.

Bottom line: China's lumber market is showing signs of rebalancing in early 2026. Stocks are declining to a more comfortable level with stable demand, which creates prerequisites for price stability. Import dynamics and the depth of the recession in the construction sector remain key risks.

Tags: #China #Taicang #lumber #import #market_less #logistics #construction #forecast_2026

Edited Moderator (Feb. 8, 2026 18:06:50)