The collapse of the newsprint market

Head of the League of Waste Paper Processors on the collapse of the newsprint market and prospects for Russian manufacturers

    Global newsprint consumption has declined from 40 million tons in the early 2000s to 10 million tons in 2025, but Russian manufacturers have long remained optimistic, hoping for market recovery and ousting competitors. Andrey Guryanov, General Director of the League of Waste Paper Processors, spoke about why these hopes were not fulfilled and what awaits the industry.

The Chinese factor: hopes and reality

    Forecasts of demand growth in China were a key driver of Russian manufacturers' optimism. The country was actively decommissioning obsolete paper machines, and the share of newsprint imports increased from 3% to 12% by 2017, creating the illusion of a shortage and a promising sales market.

    However, the pandemic and the subsequent logistical crisis have dramatically changed the situation. Against the background of the e-commerce boom, Chinese packaging manufacturers temporarily switched to using lightweight container cartons with interliner, which could only be produced by newspaper factories. This created temporary demand, but after the fiber balance was restored, interest in this product in China began to decline.

Competition in China is getting tougher

    Until 2024, tenders for the purchase of paper were clearly divided between foreign and local suppliers. Now national producers are allowed to participate in the bidding process together with foreign sellers. At the same time, prices at import markets are traditionally lower than domestic ones, which puts Russian exporters in a less favorable position.

"The Chinese market is changing, and competition is becoming more intense"
— Andrey Guryanov

India: the last major market

    India remains the largest importer of newsprint in the world with a 13% share. The country is critically dependent on imports of low-kilogram paper with a density of 40-42.5 g/sq. m, which is produced by Russia and Canada, since the local industry cannot produce products below 45 g/sq. m for high-speed printing presses. However, even here, the interest in paper media is quickly exhausted.

The strategic impasse of Russian manufacturers

    The problem is compounded by the fact that Russian factories have been counting on competitors to leave for years.: Syktyvkar LPC switched to other types of securities, Kondopoga Central Bank went through bankruptcy, Volga also faced financial difficulties. However, instead of market growth, its catastrophic contraction occurred.

Key newsprint market indicators:

What to do?

    According to the expert, the capacity of Russian newsprint production should be reduced to 300-400 thousand tons per year, that is, about 1 million tons of existing capacities should be decommissioned.

"Russia has large stocks of waste paper, and we are transferring expensive primary softwood fiber, which is in demand all over the world, to the production of a dying product"
— Andrey Guryanov

Alternative scenarios:

1. - Preservation of pulp cooking: Stop papermaking machines, but maintain the production of pulp from coniferous and deciduous wood, the demand for which is constantly growing.
2.  
3. - Transition to textiles: To process cellulose into viscose fiber, which is in high demand by the textile industry, especially in the absence of its own cotton in Russia.

Both options require significant capital investments, which Russian mills currently do not have, but they may be the only long-term strategy for survival in the face of the global decline of the newsprint market.

Key findings:

•     The newsprint market is shrinking irreversibly:
•     - The Chinese market has become less accessible due to internal competition.
•     - India remains the last major market, but its potential is limited.
•     - Russian manufacturers need a deep transformation of their capacities.

Tags: #newspaper paper #pulp #LPC #Andrey_Guryanov #Liga_processing paper #export #China #India