Global timber sector in January 2026

Global timber industry in January 2026: Multidirectional dynamics amid commodity shortages and rising costs

    According to the Global Timber Index (GTI) report released today, supported by the International Tropical Timber Organization (ITTO), the global timber industry entered 2026 with multidirectional dynamics. While Indonesia and Thailand are showing solid recovery, most other key players, including China, Brazil and Gabon, are recording a decline in activity. The main systemic challenges remain the shortage of raw materials and persistently high production costs.

Global mosaic: who is growing and who is falling

    The January GTI figures, where a reading above 50% indicates growth and below that indicates contraction, paint a complex picture of the global timber sector.

    The overall indexes also confirm the pessimistic picture: GTI-Producers accounted for 48.9%, and GTI-Woodbased Panel — 43.6%, indicating a global reduction in production and output of slab products.

Regional trends: Southeast Asia is leading, Africa is stabilizing, Latin America is looking for new markets

    The analysis of sub-indexes allows us to identify key regional trends.:

• - Southeast Asia: Indonesia and Thailand recorded an improvement in domestic markets and an increase in production volumes. Thailand also demonstrated impressive export dynamics by the end of 2025: exports of furniture and components reached $1.80 billion, an increase of almost 24% compared to the previous year.
• - Africa: Supply is stabilizing in Gabon and the Republic of the Congo. An encouraging signal was the agreement between the Union of Loggers and the Gabonese Woodworking Industry (UFIGA) and the railway company SETRAG on the abolition of the requirement for pre-payment of transportation, which will reduce the burden on the cash flows of enterprises.
• - Latin America: Despite the general decline in activity, the export sector is showing positive signals. Brazil and Mexico recorded monthly growth in exports. Brazilian lumber exports recovered from a three-year decline in 2025, increasing by 5% to 2.96 million m3. It is noteworthy that, although shipments to the United States decreased by 12%, Brazil increased exports to China, Spain, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. Ecuador has stabilized exports after the previous recession.
• - China: The GTI index of 45.0% reflects the continued slowdown of the world's largest importer and processor of wood. High purchase prices for raw materials and pressure from the construction sector remain a key factor.

Main challenges: resource hunger and rising costs

    A survey of GTI participating enterprises revealed the systemic problems faced by the industry worldwide:

1. - Shortage of raw materials: Businesses in Indonesia, Thailand, Brazil and Ecuador reported insufficient or unstable supplies of raw materials. This indicates the depletion of available forest resources or logistical constraints in key producing regions.
2. - Rising prices for raw materials: Malaysia, Ghana and China record steady increases in purchase prices for wood raw materials, which squeezes the margins of processors.
3. - General increase in the cost of production: Businesses are facing rising labor, electricity, fuel, and tax costs. In response, companies are strengthening cost control and calling for government support through subsidies and tax breaks.

Key export indicators of Thailand and Brazil:

Measures to support and stimulate demand

    Against the background of the difficult situation, a number of countries are taking steps to stimulate demand. Brazil, Mexico and Ecuador have introduced new housing policies and construction targets, which should have a positive impact on demand for wood and furniture in the medium term.

Conclusions and forecast

    The January GTI report captures the transition of the global timber sector into a phase of structural adjustment. Traditional production centers are facing resource constraints and rising costs, while individual Southeast Asian countries are successfully adapting and increasing exports.

Key findings for the global market:

•     Diversification of supply chains is becoming a critical necessity for importers and processors.
• Pressure on margins will continue, requiring enterprises to increase efficiency and strictly control costs.
• Government support for the construction sector in Latin America can create new demand growth points.
• The Chinese market, despite the current slowdown, remains a key driver of global timber trade, and any recovery in demand in China will have an immediate impact on global prices.

Tags: #global market #forestry #GTI #ITTO #supply chain #raw materials shortage #production support #exports #Indonesia #Thailand #Brazil #China