The Toilet Paper Market in China

Toilet paper market in China: large factories raise prices, small ones yield to buyers' resistance

    The Chinese large-diameter toilet paper market entered April 2026 in a state of multidirectional dynamics. Large integrated producers that own their own pulp production have achieved price increases of 50-100 yuan per ton, citing rising costs of wood chips and planned downtime. However, small and medium-sized factories faced fierce resistance from customers and were forced not only to cancel the increase, but also in some cases to lower prices. Regional differences, seasonal demand, and rising logistics costs create a complex picture for market participants.

Price dynamics: regional differences and fluctuations

    According to Fastmarkets estimates, the price situation in China's key regional markets as of April 3, 2026 is as follows:

    As can be seen from the table, prices show multidirectional dynamics depending on the region. Northern China (Hebei Province) showed a decrease, while southern China (Guangxi) showed an increase. Eastern China (Shandong) and southwestern China (Sichuan) remained stable.

Why were large factories able to raise prices?

    Several integrated pulp and toilet paper manufacturers in China managed to raise the prices of large diameter rolls by 50-100 yuan per ton during the month ended April 3. Key success factors:

1. - Increased costs of wood chips: In March, there was an increase in prices for wood chips, which increased the cost of producing its own pulp. Large factories using their own raw materials have felt this pressure more acutely.
2. - Planned maintenance downtime: Four integrated manufacturers have scheduled capacity shutdowns for the period from March to May, each lasting from one to two weeks. This has reduced the supply on the market.
3. - Stocks of raw materials at higher prices: Large mills in Eastern and Southern China store more raw materials or produce their own pulp. Currently, they use pulp purchased earlier at higher prices and are reluctant to lower prices for finished products.
4. - High product quality: Buyers of large suppliers are unlikely to quickly switch to cheaper rolls from small manufacturers, as long as profitability remains high, given the excellent quality offered by large manufacturers.
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Why are small and medium-sized factories lowering prices?

    Unlike large players, small and medium-sized factories found themselves in a more vulnerable position.:

• - Customer resistance: Retail prices for paper products remained stable in March, which made buyers reluctant to accept price increases for large-format rolls.
• - Decrease in market prices for pulp at the end of March: This undermined the argument for higher prices for finished products.
• - Smaller stocks of raw materials: Mills in Northern China are smaller and more sensitive to changes in pulp prices because they maintain smaller stocks. Falling pulp prices forced them to reduce their offers.
• - Lack of their own pulp production: Small mills purchase pulp on the market and react faster to its price fluctuations.
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Seasonal demand: March surge

    March 2026 was characterized by high demand for paper products. All enterprises that suspended operations in February due to the celebration of the Lunar New Year have resumed operations. Although the official holiday period fell on February 15-23, many companies extended their breaks.

Additional drivers of demand were:

• - International Women's Day (March 8): Increased sales of gift and holiday products.
• - Students returning to school after the winter holidays: The growing demand for stationery and related products.
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Pressure on processors: rising logistics and packaging costs

    While large manufacturers are trying to raise prices, processors (companies producing finished products such as napkins and toilet paper) are facing their own problems.:

"Our profits were limited as prices for finished products and retail prices remained mostly stable, while prices for large diameter rolls increased in the first quarter. In addition, logistics and packaging costs increased in March. Domestic logistics costs have increased in some regions, and the cost of shipping for export has increased further due to ongoing conflicts in the Middle East," A source at the processing company said.

"The cost of express delivery in the retail market has remained unchanged; however, it is expected to increase in recent weeks. Prices for some packaging materials, including plastic and cardboard, are also rising" — A source at a packaging materials manufacturer

Export: the Asian direction is becoming more competitive

    The rising cost of shipping has negatively affected export demand to regions such as Africa and Europe, where tariffs have increased more. At the same time, exports to Asia became more concentrated, as the increase in freight transportation prices was less significant. This has led to fierce competition both in Asian export markets and in China's domestic market.

    Notably, prices for FOB paper napkins for export remained stable in March, despite higher logistical costs.

Forecast: What awaits the market in the second quarter?

    Retailers are resisting price increases for finished products, expecting lower demand after mid-April. The holiday period has ended, and there has traditionally been a reduction in purchases in the second quarter.

The key factors to watch out for are:

1. - Pulp price dynamics: Any changes in the pulp market will be quickly translated into prices for large diameter rolls, especially for small producers.
2. - Completion of planned downtime: After the resumption of the capacity of large plants, the supply will increase, which may stabilize or lower prices.
3. - Logistical costs: If the cost of shipping continues to rise, export flows may shift further towards Asia, increasing competition in the domestic market.
4. - Retail demand: The ability of retailers to keep prices down for finished products will determine the willingness of buyers to accept price increases for large diameter rolls.
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Key market indicators:

Conclusions for market participants

•     For large integrated manufacturers, the current situation makes it possible to keep prices down due to the quality of products and stocks of raw materials at higher prices. However, long-term price increases will require sustained growth in demand.
•     The main challenge for small and medium—sized plants is the volatility of the market and the sensitivity of buyers to the price. The strategy of reducing costs and increasing efficiency is becoming critical.
•     Margin pressure will continue for processors and retailers. Success will depend on the ability to optimize logistics and packaging costs, as well as flexibility in pricing.
•     For exporters, the Asian direction remains a priority, but competition there will only intensify. Market diversification and product quality improvement can be key success factors.

Tags: #China #paper industry #toilet paper #pulp #wood chips #prices #demand #logistics #Fastmarkets

Edited Moderator (April 12, 2026 17:08:00)