Logging in Komi in 2026 may decrease by 6-12%

Logging in Komi may decrease by 6-12% in 2026

    The volume of logging in the Komi Republic, one of the key forest regions of Russia, may decrease by 6-12% in 2026, to 7.5—8 million cubic meters. Such a forecast was announced by Roman Polshvedkin, Minister of Natural Resources and Ecology of the region, in an interview with TASS. The decline continues for the third year in a row: after a peak of 10 million cubic meters. In 2019-2020, only 8.5 million cubic meters were harvested in 2025, which is 12.4% less than in 2024. These figures are followed by a systemic sales crisis, transport isolation, business refusal from auctions and unwillingness to enter the stock market.

Results of 2025 and forecast for 2026

    The Komi Republic, where 87% of the territory is covered with forests (mainly coniferous — spruce, pine), has enormous potential: the total estimated cutting area is 33.8 million cubic meters. m per year. However, only a third is being developed due to the remoteness and inaccessibility of a significant part of the sites.

Dynamics of logging in Komi:

    In 2025, out of 8.5 million m3, 7.3 million were harvested by large tenants.

    The minister attributes the fall to the geopolitical situation, anti-Russian sanctions and the closure of traditional sales markets. At the same time, more than half of the forest plots that the region put up for auctions for small and medium-sized businesses remained unclaimed.

How a business adapts: save a logging area at any cost

    According to Roman Polshvedkin, enterprises will seek to retain lease agreements for forest plots.:

"They will serve them, pay rent, but they will try to keep the logging area for themselves until better times, and production will become more and more extensive" — Roman Polshvedkin, Minister of Natural Resources and Ecology of the Komi Republic

    Further consolidation is predicted: small and medium-sized players are either leaving or being absorbed by large structures capable of bearing the costs of idle capacities in anticipation of a future recovery in demand.

Why don't companies go public

    Komi enterprises are not in a hurry to sell wood on the St. Petersburg Stock Exchange yet. The minister explained this by two key factors:

1. - The region's transport isolation — remoteness and high logistical costs make stock trading less attractive compared to direct contracts.
2. - Established direct export contacts — most timber producers have established long-term relationships with customers that have not been interrupted for years. At the same time, the conflict in the Middle East has added restrictions on supplies to Pakistan and Iran, which further narrows the geography of sales.
3.  

    Roman Polshvedkin emphasized the fundamental difference between logging and processing:

"Logging is one of the production chains of the forestry industry. By its nature, it has no added value, but only incurs the costs of cutting, unloading and exporting, and the final product is obtained at other stages. Producers share with loggers a part of their received added value for the received raw materials"

    Nevertheless, the minister is confident that eventually the companies will come to the stock exchange anyway. The state has already obliged state institutions to sell harvested wood exclusively through stock trading. This can become an additional source of income for the forestry industry, covering part of the cost of forestry work.

Government regulation: regain control over forestry operations

    Roman Polshvedkin took the initiative to return to state regulation of forestry operations. Reasons:

1. - Quality control — according to the new national project, 100% of cut and dead wood needs to be restored, but businesses are not always interested in high-quality reforestation.
2. - Low profitability of sanitary logging and maintenance logging — especially in hard-to-reach areas, businesses do not see profits, so such work must be carried out by government agencies.
3.  

    What is already working in Komi: today, the forest fire center of the region conducts sanitary logging and maintenance. The Minister believes that this experience should be disseminated and systematically consolidated at the federal level.

Key indicators of the Komi forest sector:

Importance for the Russian timber industry

    The situation in Komi is not a local story, but an indicator of the underlying problems of the entire Russian forestry industry.:

1. - Compression of available markets: the closure of the European route and difficulties with supplies to the Middle East (due to conflicts and logistical constraints) force exporters to reorient to China and Central Asia, but the transport leverage and cost of transportation are increasing.
2. - Small business crisis: 50% of the plots put up for auctions for SMEs remain unclaimed. This is a signal that the small forest business in the region is on the verge of survival.
3. - The stock exchange is an inevitability, but not a panacea: despite state regulation for government institutions, private business still prefers direct contracts. However, the transparency and long-term stability of exchange mechanisms may eventually outweigh it.
4. - The state as an operator of forestry operations: the idea of returning sanitary logging and care logging to the public sector is gaining supporters. If implemented at the federal level, it could significantly change the balance between business and government in forest management.
5.  

The prospects

    The Komi Republic enters 2026 with uncertainty. The minister's forecast of minus 6-12% may even turn out to be optimistic if there are no positive developments in logistics, market access, or government support. The business relies on waiting, keeping the lease and reducing current activities. The government, in turn, is beginning to actively implement exchange mechanisms and discuss a return to direct management of forestry operations. The next 12-18 months will be a test of strength for the forest economy of the region.

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