Montreal Convention on Woodworking

The Montreal Convention on Woodworking: housing, bulk timber, tariffs, and the future of the market

    As part of the Montreal Timber Fair, a panel discussion was held with industry leaders on key topics: housing construction forecasts in the United States, the use of solid wood (CLT), the market for restoration and repair (R&R), replacement of wood species, as well as the impact of U.S. tariffs and duties on Canadian exports. The moderator was Mark Ellison (Boscus Canada), and the panel was attended by Thomas Mende (Binderholz), Doug Robinson (Weston Forest) and Frederic Verreaux (Nordic Structures / Chantier Chibougamau).

1. Forecast of the housing market in the USA

    In 2025, the volume of housing construction in the United States amounted to 1.358 million units. Most economists expect slight or moderate growth in 2026, followed by an increase in 2027-2028.

Opinions of the participants:

• - Doug Robinson (Weston Forest): In the absence of additional geopolitical shocks, forecasts make sense.
• - Thomas Mende (Binderholz): Expects the volume to remain at the same level. Construction activity began to grow before the outbreak of the war between the United States and Iran, but then an "unnecessary pause" was applied.

    The single-family housing affordability crisis is slowing market growth in Canada and the United States. According to the participants, this will lead to an increase in the share of prefabricated and apartment buildings.

"Housing affordability certainly influences the consumer's decision. In addition, lifestyle changes include the aging of the generation, moving to warmer climates. Many homes in the southern United States are built on concrete slabs, which reduces the need for wood" — Robinson

2. Ontario's Housing Construction Sector

    The Government of Ontario recently announced:

•     - Temporary abolition of VAT for new homes worth up to 1 million Canadian dollars.
•     - Investments in the amount of 8.8 billion Canadian dollars to reduce building fees.
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Frederic Verreaux (Nordic Structures) noted that taxes account for about 30% of the final price for the buyer, while the average profit of the developer is only 10%. Reducing the tax burden should have a significant positive impact on the market.

3. Bulk wood and CLT: the US market

    The solid wood and CLT market in the United States is expected to reach $5 billion over the next five years.

Thomas Mende:

•     - The US market is growing, but it has not yet reached the scale of Europe.
•     - In Europe, CLT has become a "distribution commodity" — panels are sold to processors who work with contractors.
•     - In the USA, the focus is still on large-scale "showcase" projects, rather than on a massive volume.
•     - A positive trend: the use of solid wood in ceiling and floor systems of multi-apartment frame buildings. This is an easy and fast way to expand distribution.

Frederick Verreaux:

•     - The use of solid wood in non-residential construction is growing. Currently, it accounts for about 7% of the total wood consumption in non-residential construction in North America (~4 billion boards).
•     - The design and use of solid wood is still in the demonstration stage.
•     - If we manage to double this figure in five years, it could amount to 20-30% of current Canadian lumber exports to the United States — a very significant change for the industry.
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The key conclusion is that the industry needs to work together, support projects, and successfully implement each project in order to move from demonstration to mass scale.

4. The market of restoration and repair (R&R)

    The R&R market accounts for more than a third of softwood lumber consumption in the United States. Almost 50% of the existing houses were built before 1980.

Thomas Mende:

•     - The most important thing is the "solution" of mortgage problems in the USA. The concept of a mortgage with the possibility of renewal could radically change the situation.
•     - People are more likely to renovate houses when they buy, and not because the house is old.
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5. Replacement of wood species in the USA

    There is a tendency to replace spruce, pine and fir (SPF) with southern yellow pine (SYP) in some large shopping malls.

Thomas Mende:

•     - One company in Atlanta has completely replaced SPF with SYP. Another company reported a gradual replacement as SPF availability decreased.
•     - How much the trend will continue depends on whether the buyer will accept the replacement material.
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6. Canadian timber exports: tariffs and structural changes

    In 2025, Canadian softwood producers shipped 1.5 billion fewer boards to the United States than in 2024. Of these, 1 billion came in the last five months of the year, when additional tariffs and duties came into force.

Frederick Verreaux:

•     - Tariffs have had a significant short—term impact, but the availability of raw materials is a more serious problem.
•     - Land use policies and regulations have reduced available wood stocks by 40% over the past two decades.
•     - Many sawmills have simply ceased to exist. There are no more capacities.

Thomas Mende:

•     - The construction of a new sawmill costs 2-3 times more than it did 10 years ago (about $ 300 million).
•     - You won't invest that kind of money without knowing where the materials will come from.

The long—term reduction in Canadian capacity is a structural, not a temporary phenomenon.

Key indicators and forecasts:

Key findings for the global market

1. - Housing construction in the USA is stagnating with the potential for moderate growth. The affordability crisis is changing the structure of demand (smaller houses, concrete slabs in the south, reduced demand for wood).
2. - Mass—produced wood (CLT) has a huge potential, but the USA is still at the stage of "demonstration projects". To move to the mass market, it is necessary to double the share in non-residential construction.
3. - The R&R (repair and restoration) market is stable for more than a third of consumption. The key driver is the availability of mortgages.
4. - Replacement of rocks (SPF → SYP) is a real trend that can change the structure of demand for Canadian timber.
5. - Canadian capacities are being reduced structurally due to the shortage of raw materials (land use policy, forest fires, pests) and the closure of factories. Recovery will take 5-10 years and billions of dollars of investments.
6. - Tariff uncertainty will persist in the next 1-2 years. A return to free trade is possible in the medium term, but structural changes in the US economy may delay this process.

Tags: #Montreal #woodworking #house_building_CLT #mass_wood #tariffs #Canada #USA #market_wood