China: The quiet transformation into a global forest superpower

China: The quiet transformation into a global forest superpower

    China has never positioned itself as a "forest power." Initially, the country had limited stocks of commercially suitable wood per capita, and domestic forest management is strictly regulated by environmental programs. Nevertheless, by the end of 2025, China confidently holds the status of the world's largest wood processor and one of the leading exporters of value-added products. How did a country with a shortage of its own raw materials turn into an architect of global forest chains and what does this mean for Russia?

Where does China get its timber from?

    Contrary to popular belief, China has managed to grow huge plantations of wood for processing over the past 30 years.

Artificial forest areas

    The growth has almost doubled in 30 years.

Dynamics of annual growth

•     - 1990-2000: +1.07 million hectares/year
•     - 2000-2015: +1.61 million hectares/year (peak)
•     - 2015-2025: +1.36 million hectares/year
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Basic rocks for industrial processing

The main myth: Does Russia supply a sawmill to China?

    Surprisingly, most ordinary people in Russia do not know that Russia does not supply saw blades to China. The export of untreated roundwood is prohibited from January 1, 2022.

"Russia exports some birch bark, but these are very small volumes, and the product is considered a niche product in China. China buys a little finished plywood in Russia and is a significant buyer of lumber, but we do not supply raw materials to China."

Supplier No. 1: New Zealand

    The number one supplier of roundwood to China is... New Zealand. They supply up to 40 million m3 of untreated wood (for comparison: Russia harvests about 180 million m3 in just one year, but almost all of it is processed domestically).

    New Zealand has chosen a wise strategy:

•     - We have chosen one variety of coniferous wood with stable qualities.
•     - We have created about 2 million hectares of plantations.

Key figures:

• - 92% of all exports of New Zealand logs go to China.
•     - In monetary terms: $3.2 billion of New Zealand's $5.75 billion total exports of forest products are untreated logs.
•     - Breed: almost 100% Radiata Pine.
•     - Rotation: 25-30 years (for comparison: spruce in Russia — 60-80 years).
•     - Price: about $137/m3 (CFR, December 2025), which is competitive even with freight.

    New Zealand covers about 75% of China's total demand for raw materials for lumber production.

    An important caveat: there are no cries in New Zealand that "China keeps us as a raw material appendage." They have built a systematic plantation model and are quietly earning billions.

Hardwood: Thailand instead of Russia

    In the hardwood segment, the import structure is different:

•     - Total volume in 2025: 9.5 million m3.
•     - Thailand is the largest supplier (44%).
•     - Breed: rubberwood (valuable for ease of processing, light shade, and affordability).
•     - Application: furniture, floor coverings, slab technologies (LVL, MDF, chipboard).

Trend: As its own plantations grow, China is gradually reducing imports of untreated roundwood in favor of lumber, veneer, and process chips.

From recycling to global dominance

    By importing raw materials, China not only covers domestic demand, but also exports a lot, successfully competing in third world markets (and slightly crowding Russian producers).

Export results for 2025

    For comparison, Russia, with the largest reserves of wood, exports about 1.5–2 million m3 of plywood.

Price dumping as a strategy

    Average export price of plywood:

• - China: $381/m3
• - Indonesia: $467/m3
• - Malaysia: $949/m3

    China uses price dumping to capture the market. Russia, with its costs, simply cannot compete in this segment.

Furniture exports: reorientation

•     - Exports of wooden furniture decreased by 10% YoY.
•     - The reason: a 20% drop in shipments to the United States.
•     - The American market share has decreased from ~50% to 27%.
•     - China is increasing supplies to the UK, Australia and Japan (up to 20% of exports).
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System advantages: why competitors don't keep up

    China's success is not accidental and is based on several interrelated factors.:

1. - Industrial clusters and economies of scale. The concentration of production in specialized economic zones minimizes internal logistics, standardizes processes and reduces unit costs.
2. - Flexible logistics. The integration of seaports, railway corridors and warehouse hubs ensures the turnover of raw materials and finished products in a short time.
3. - Government support and financial capacity. Preferential loans, subsidized export operations, and a willingness to work with low margins in order to maintain a share.
4. - Technological modernization. Automated sorting lines, digital drying control, and AI tools for demand forecasting.
5.  

Key indicators of China's forestry sector:

What does this mean for Russia?

    China has ceased to be just a "buyer of raw materials" and has become a competitor in the markets of third countries, setting price targets.

Direct conclusions for the Russian LPC:

1.     - The price pressure of Chinese plywood and furniture makes direct competition in the mass segment extremely difficult. Russian plywood with its cost price cannot beat the Chinese with their own weapons.
2.     - Russia's withdrawal from a number of export destinations (Europe, the Middle East markets) has already been offset by Chinese facilities. We are losing markets, and China is taking them away.
3.     - Russia is not a key supplier of raw materials for China. We do not export roundwood (a ban), lumber — yes, but they make up only a part of Chinese imports. The main suppliers are New Zealand (roundwood) and Thailand (hardwood).
4.  
5. What should Russia do?
   •     - Go into high-level alterations (glued beams, LVL, house kits), where the Chinese do not yet dominate.
   •     - To develop plantation reforestation of fast-growing species (for example, poplar for plywood) in order to reduce the cost.
   •     - Look for niche markets where Chinese dumping does not work (special breeds, certified products, products for government buildings with restrictions on origin).
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6. New Zealand is an example to follow. Instead of complaining about their "dependence on raw materials," they have built a systematic plantation business and are quietly selling 40 million cubic meters per year, without having problems with "Chinese colonialism."
7.  

Result

    China has completed its transformation: from a country in short supply of raw materials, it has become the No. 1 global timber processor. Plantations, logistics, dumping, and economies of scale are systemic advantages that will not disappear tomorrow.

    It's time for Russia to stop thinking of China as a "bottomless market for lumber." China is a competitor, and a very strong one. Russia's success in the timber industry will depend not on the volume of supplies to China, but on its ability to compete with China in third-country markets and move into those segments where Chinese dumping has not yet reached.

Tags: #China #forestry #wood processing #export #plantations #New Zealand #Russia #competition