Karelian forest tenants transferred 3 billion rubles to their budgets over the year

Karelian forest tenants transferred 3 billion rubles to their budgets over the year

    Tenants of forest plots in Karelia contributed 3 billion rubles to budgets of all levels in 2025, which is 13.3% more than a year earlier. The consolidated budget of the republic received almost 1.2 billion rubles. The steady growth of payments indicates both the stable work of tenants and an increase in their payment discipline, even in the face of crisis phenomena in the industry.

Numbers and dynamics

    Forest payments remain one of the key sources of revenue for both the federal and regional budgets of Karelia, one of the main timber—producing regions of Northwestern Russia.

Reasons for growth: discipline and number of contracts

    The Ministry of Property and Land Relations of the region attributes the positive dynamics to two main factors.

1. Increasing the payment discipline of tenants

    The head of the Department Natalia Tenchurina noted:

"Increasing the proportion of timely closed accounts allows for confident budget planning"

    The government of the region monitors the fulfillment of contractual obligations by tenants. At a time when the Russian forestry industry is experiencing a crisis (falling exports, rising logistics costs), the steady flow of payments from Karelia is a positive signal. This may mean that large tenants in the region (for example, Segezha Group, Karelian Central Bank) maintain financial stability and do not allow arrears.

    2. Increase in the number of concluded contracts

    The positive dynamics of income from the lease of republican lands (not forest lands) has been recorded since last year. In 2025, Karelia received almost 21 million rubles (+12.6% by 2024). The ministry explained this by an increase in the number of concluded contracts. The increase in the number of forest lease agreements may be related to the consolidation of the industry: large players are expanding the logging base, while small and medium-sized enterprises, on the contrary, are releasing land.

What's behind the numbers: the context of Karelia's forestry industry

    The Republic of Karelia is traditionally included in the top 5 regions of Russia in terms of logging (along with the Irkutsk Region, Krasnoyarsk Territory, Arkhangelsk and Vologda regions). In 2025, the Federal Forestry Agency recorded a drop in logging in the whole country, but Karelia, judging by payments, feels relatively stable.

Features of the Karelian LPC:

•     - The dominance of large vertically integrated holdings (Segezha Group).
•     - Advanced processing: pulp and paper mill, sawmilling, plywood.
•     - Proximity to ports (Murmansk, Arkhangelsk, ports of the Leningrad region), which is critically important for exports.
•  

Risk factors that could reduce payments, but have not yet reduced:

•     - The reorientation of exports from Europe to China (the logistical leverage has increased, but the tenants are coping).
•     - Increased logistics costs (Russian Railways tariffs).
•     - Reduction of export subsidies (in 2026, the volume of subsidies for agricultural products decreased from 7.6 billion rubles in 2023 to ~ 550 million rubles).

    The fact that, despite all these problems, payments increased by 13.3% indicates high payment discipline and, possibly, conservative forecasting (there are no arrears yet, but the pressure on business is growing).

Importance for the Russian forestry industry

    The experience of Karelia is an important signal for other forest regions (Komi, Arkhangelsk, Vologda, Irkutsk, Kirov regions, Krasnoyarsk Territory).

1. - Payment discipline = budgetary stability. Even in times of crisis, if the region strictly controls the execution of lease agreements, it is possible to receive income growth.
2. - Big business is holding its own. A 13% increase in payments, despite the fact that logging fell across the country in 2025 (~12% in Komi, 5-7% in the Russian Federation as a whole), means that Karelian tenants have either increased their volumes or are working with high margins, allowing them to pay taxes on time.
3. - The consolidation of the industry continues. An increase in the number of contracts with a general reduction in the number of players (the forecast is for the closure of up to 50% of enterprises by the end of 2026) is possible only due to the fact that large companies lease land that becomes vacant after the departure of small businesses.
4. - An example to follow: Other regions can learn from Karelia's experience in increasing payment discipline and tenant control in order to minimize income shortfalls during the crisis.
5.  

Key indicators of payments by Karelian forest tenants:

Forecast for 2026

    Will Karelian forest tenants be able to repeat the success of 2025 in the context of the deepening crisis?

The arguments for saving payments are:

•     - Major players have long contracts and will not allow bankruptcy.
•     - FGIS LC makes the system transparent, it is more difficult to avoid payments.
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Arguments "against" a possible reduction:

•     - Falling global prices for lumber and plywood are squeezing margins.
•     - Logistics is becoming more expensive (Russian Railways tariffs, strengthening of the ruble).
•     - Possible bankruptcies among small and medium-sized tenants (at least some of the contracts may be terminated).

A likely scenario: in 2026, if payments do not increase, they will remain at the level of 2025 (3 billion rubles), but the growth rate will slow down from 13% to 0-3%.

Result

    3 billion rubles from Karelian forest tenants in 2025 is proof that with proper administration and high discipline of taxpayers, the forestry industry remains a reliable source of budget revenue. The only question is how long big business will be able to "hold its own" in the face of falling export prices, rising costs and reduced government support.

    For the timber industry, this is a reminder: taxes and rents are not the kind of item that you can save on in a crisis. The state (especially at the regional level) will strictly control payments, and arrears may become grounds for termination of lease agreements and loss of the cutting area.

Tags: #Karelia #lease_forest #forest payments #budget #segezha_group #payment discipline #LPC

Edited Moderator (May 18, 2026 07:13:09)