Chinese traders return to Africa

Chinese traders are returning to Africa amid rising prices for tropical timber

    Chinese sawmills have started harvesting okume again in West and Central Africa, resuming orders for the tropical timber trade, which has been in decline recently. This provides moderate support to the prices of logs and lumber. According to the latest report from the International Tropical Timber Organization (ITTO), price increases are becoming more noticeable in the region, despite the fact that exporters have to put up with higher taxes, rainy weather and frequent power outages. China is returning to the negotiating table — and this is the main news for African manufacturers.

Demand growth: not so much a desire as a necessity

    Renewed demand for okume and solid orders from Vietnam are pushing up prices for tropical timber in the region. However, as the ITTO report highlights, the growth in demand is not so much due to demand itself as to limited supply.

Supply limitation factors:

•     - Increased export duties in producing countries (especially in Gabon).
•     - Reduction of production of such breeds as azobe and okan.
•     - Reducing the volume of timber entering ports.

    The availability of okan wood has been particularly sharply reduced. As a result, buyers are competing for a smaller volume of high-quality structural wood. For Chinese importers, this means that even when they return to purchasing, it becomes more difficult to choose and buy the right volume.

China's return: the main signal for the market

    The most obvious change in the market is the gradual return of China. Chinese-owned factories are resuming active production of okume after a period of restrained purchases.

    The price increase remains insignificant so far, but exporters regard the resumption of the flow of orders as a signal that the region's largest buyer has returned to the negotiating table.

Context: Earlier, in 2024-2025, Chinese imports of tropical timber declined due to the stagnation of the construction sector within China and the accumulation of reserves. Now that stocks are depleted and prices for individual breeds have reached attractive levels, traders are returning.

Other Asian markets: Vietnam pulls, Philippines stabilizes

    Demand in the rest of Asia is unevenly distributed:

Conclusion for Chinese traders: While Europe is "sleeping", Asia (China + Vietnam) remains the main driver of demand for African tropical timber.

Problems of exporters: taxes, rains, electricity

    Exporters in West and Central Africa face three groups of problems that prevent the market from fully accelerating.

1. Tax increases
    Many countries (Gabon, Cameroon, the Republic of the Congo) have increased export duties on untreated wood, stimulating domestic processing. This increases the cost and reduces the competitiveness of African products in foreign markets.

    2. Rainy season
    The rainy season continues to affect much of West and Central Africa, delaying harvest and cargo transportation. Drier weather persisted only in central and northern Cameroon and the Central African Republic.

3. Frequent power outages
    Regular power outages continue to disrupt the operation of sawmills and industries in a number of producing countries. This reduces the volume of lumber production and increases the cost (diesel generators have to be used).

Price dynamics: what's the price?

    The price indicators tracked in the ITTO report indicate an improvement in the quality of lumber in general.

Prices for FAS GMS lumber (euro/m3):

Prices for logs (Euro/m3, CFR China / Asia):

    For Chinese importers, okume at 190-220 euros per cubic meter remains an acceptable level, especially given that alternative supplies (Southeast Asia) are also becoming more expensive.

Key indicators of the tropical timber market:

Forecast: what will happen next?

    Overall, there is a cautiously positive signal for producers in West and Central Africa, driven almost exclusively by rising demand in Asia rather than any large-scale recovery in Europe or North America.

The key question is: will the higher price remain?

    The answer depends on two factors:

1. - How long will China maintain its purchases (if this is a temporary phenomenon, prices will fall again).
2. - How quickly will exporters be able to overcome the tax, energy, and infrastructure constraints that still weigh on trade?
3.  

Recommendation for Chinese traders:

•     In the short term (2-3 months), prices are likely to continue to rise modestly, as supply is limited by the rainy season and taxes.
•     It is worth considering the possibility of concluding medium-term contracts (for 3-6 months) to fix current prices, especially for okuma and paduk.
•     Keep a close eye on the news from Gabon (export duties, stable power supply) and Cameroon (weather, logistics).
•  

Result

    China is returning to Africa. This is the main conclusion from the ITTO report. Vietnam is catching up, Europe remains on the sidelines. Prices are rising, but not at an explosive pace — rather, creeping, due to supply problems. For Chinese importers of tropical timber, the current situation is a window of opportunity: as long as demand is not overheated and there is no competition from Europeans, profitable contracts can be concluded. But how long this "window" will last depends on how quickly African exporters solve their internal problems and how long China will be willing to pay a little more than before.

Tags: #Africa #china #tropic_wood #okume #azobe #paduk #import #prices #Vietnam #ITTO