International Pulp and Paper Industry Week 2026

International Pulp and Paper Industry Week 2026: China and Asia in the spotlight

    At the International Pulp and Paper Industry Week 2026, China and Asia were in the spotlight. Li Meng, General Director of the Beijing Office of the Pulp and Paper Products Council, presented an overview of the development of China's pulp and paper industry and short-term prospects based on the country's five-year plans. Understanding these plans, she said, gives international market participants a reliable idea of where Chinese policy is heading and what trade and investment conditions should be expected.

1. Growth trajectory: from expansion to sustainable development

    The Chinese pulp and paper industry has grown significantly over the last three planning periods, from 2010 to 2025.

Key stages:

• - The 12th five-year plan (2010-2015): Growth due to increased sales volumes.
• - 13th Five-year Plan (2016-2020): Regulatory consolidation phase.
• - The 14th five-year plan (2021-2025): The strongest growth is about 4.6% per year, which represents an almost 25% increase in total production over five years.

    In 2025 alone, there was an increase in the total production of pulp, paper and cardboard by almost 4%. According to Li Meng, the dynamics of development over the three periods reflects the transition from extensive expansion to accelerated and more sustainable growth.

2. Market balance: production meets demand, exports are growing

    In the long run, production and demand were closely correlated, indicating a generally balanced market, although in shorter periods the industry experienced some oversupply as export markets absorbed additional products.

Export of paper and cardboard:

• - 2025: ~12 million tons (almost three times more than 4.3 million tons in 2010).
•     - Share of exports from domestic production: 8.4%

Import of paper and cardboard:

• 2025: ~9 million tons, reflecting China's growing demand for more expensive varieties that are not produced in sufficient volume domestically.
•  

3. A structural shift in fiber consumption

    During the same period, the situation with the supply of wood fiber has changed significantly.

The share of wood pulp in total fiber consumption:

•     - Increased from 24% to 42%
•     - The proportion of recycled fiber (waste paper) decreased accordingly

Domestic production of wood pulp:

•     - It has almost quadrupled since 2010
• - 2025: ~27 million tons (approximately equal to the volume of imported commercial pulp)

The share of domestic production in the total consumption of wood pulp:

• - 2015: 35%
• - 2025: ~50%

This is a structural change with direct consequences for international suppliers of commercial pulp. China is becoming more and more self-sufficient.

4. 15th Five-year plan (2026-2030): confirmed capacity growth

    As part of the 15th five-year plan, the confirmed capacity increases include:

Important Note: Li Meng's analysis only covers confirmed projects through 2028. Some announced capacities may be postponed or cancelled due to current market conditions.

Trend: The growth rate of white paper production is slowing down. Cardboard for packaging still occupies the largest share in the total volume of Chinese production.

5. The discrepancy between deciduous and coniferous species

    In the marketable pulp consumption segment, there is a striking discrepancy between hardwood and coniferous varieties.

An additional factor for conifers:
    The outbreak of the pine beetle in China has made previously expensive domestic coniferous wood cheaper to harvest. This could potentially support some growth in domestic softwood pulp production and have a minor impact on import demand over the next two to three years.

Conclusion for international suppliers:

• - Commercial hardwood pulp remains in demand, but China is increasing its own production.
• - Coniferous commercial pulp is facing stagnating demand and additional pressure from internal harvesting due to environmental factors (beetle).
•  

6. Changing the end-use of commercial pulp

    There is also a pronounced tendency to change the structure of consumption of commercial pulp by product type.

    Given that toilet paper accounts for only about half of the printing and writing paper market in China, its share in consumption will grow as the structural decline in this segment continues.

Non-traditional use: Li Meng also noted the growing use of paper-grade cellulose in the production of viscose staple fibers (textile industry).

• ~1.2 million tons of wood pulp imports last year were allocated to this end-use.
•     - This means that approximately one in six tons of Chinese wood pulp imports was used for non-traditional purposes.

Conclusion: The demand for pulp in China depends less and less on the traditional paper industry and more and more on hygiene products (toilet paper, napkins) and textiles (viscose).

7. Availability of wood chips: the problem is exaggerated

    Regarding the availability of wood chips and fiber, an issue that directly affects how realistic it can be to increase domestic pulp production in China, Li Meng gave a balanced assessment.

    Despite the significant expansion of domestic pulp production capacity, she said China would not face a shortage of wood chips in the near future.

Factors:

•     - Quotas for logging in Chinese provinces have increased by about 27%.
•     - Domestic supplies of hardwood wood chips will make up for the shortfall resulting from the recent reduction in wood chips imports (imports fell by 1.6 million tons between 2024 and 2025).

"In the short term, the availability of wood chips in China is not the problem that some market participants assume" — Li Meng

8. Bamboo: not a competitor yet

    During the Q&A session, one of the delegates asked about bamboo as a potential source of cellulose fiber, a topic of growing commercial interest.

Li Meng's response:

•     - The production cost of bamboo pulp in China is significantly higher than that of ordinary hardwood pulp.
•     - The reason: bamboo cultivation is concentrated in Sichuan Province and central China, which leads to high transportation and assembly costs.
•     - It is difficult for bamboo to compete economically with established sources of hardwood.

    She does not expect bamboo to become a significant solution for pulp production in the foreseeable future.

Key indicators of China's pulp and paper industry:

Key conclusions for market participants

1. - China is becoming self-sufficient: The share of domestic pulp production has reached 50% of total consumption. This is a long-term trend, not a temporary phenomenon.
2. - Hardwoods vs conifers: Imports of hardwood pulp are growing, while coniferous pulp is stagnating. Suppliers of softwood pulp (Canada, Russia, Scandinavia, USA) should look for other markets or diversify their product range.
3. - End-use shift: Toilet paper, hygiene products, and viscose (textiles) are replacing printed paper as demand drivers. Suppliers need to understand where their products are going.
4. - Wood chips are not a problem: Concerns about the shortage of wood chips in China are exaggerated. The increase in quotas and domestic supplies of hard rocks cover the needs.
5. - Bamboo is not a panacea: High cost will not allow bamboo to displace traditional wood pulp in the foreseeable future.
6. - Confirmed projects vs reality: Not all announced capacities will be put into operation. Market conditions (prices, demand, profitability) may postpone or cancel some projects.
7. - Exports are growing: China is increasing exports of paper and cardboard (tripled in 15 years). This makes Chinese manufacturers not only consumers of imported raw materials, but also competitors in the global markets of finished products.
8.  

Result

    The Chinese pulp and paper industry has completed its transformation: from catching up and import-dependent, it has become a large, technological and increasingly self-sufficient player. For international pulp suppliers, this means that strategies need to be reviewed: they can no longer rely on simply increasing supplies to China. It is necessary to understand regional and breed nuances, monitor five—year plans and be prepared for the fact that Chinese producers will increasingly replace imports with their raw materials, and compete more and more fiercely with Western players in export markets.

Tags: #China #pulp and paper industry #five-year plans #cellulose imports #hardwood #coniferous #commercial cellulose #bamboo #forecast #International week