Furniture in Russia: prices for kitchens and cabinets are rising faster than inflation

Furniture in Russia: prices for kitchens and cabinets are rising faster than inflation amid falling demand

    The Russian furniture market is entering a phase of stagflation: retail sales are declining, and prices for certain categories, primarily kitchen furniture and cabinets, continue to grow steadily, outpacing overall inflation. According to the Association of Furniture and Woodworking Industry Enterprises (AMDPR), furniture sales fell by 10% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026. The drop in demand provoked by the cancellation of mass preferential mortgages, and the simultaneous increase in costs due to higher VAT, sanctioned restrictions on fittings and staff shortages have created a paradoxical situation: manufacturers are forced to raise prices, losing customers.

Alarming statistics: sales are falling, prices for certain categories are rising

    According to the Association of Furniture and Woodworking Industry Enterprises (AMDPR), retail furniture sales decreased by 10% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026. The number of purchases across the country decreased by 14%, and in some weeks of March, consumer spending on furniture fell by 9% year-on-year.

    The drop in demand began after the cancellation of the massive preferential mortgage in July 2024. A year later, the volume of furniture purchases by Russian developers decreased by 20-25%, to 70-75 billion rubles. Buyers are increasingly putting off large expenses or switching to more affordable options, including used furniture, whose market share has already exceeded half of sales.

The paradox is that sales are falling, but prices for certain categories continue to rise, and at a faster pace. According to AMDPR, the following growth has been recorded:

    The minimum cost of furnishing a two-room apartment in January reached 258.6 thousand rubles, an increase of 5.3% over the year.

Nina Belova, Director of Quality and Service at Hoff hypermarket chain, estimated the price increase for cabinet furniture in the range of 5-15%, with noticeable differentiation: budget kitchen sets increased in price by 3-5%, the middle segment by 5-10%, and individual projects by all 15%.

Reasons for the price increase: five pressure factors

    Rising prices against the background of falling demand is an abnormal phenomenon in a market economy. But the furniture industry has been caught between several powerful cost growth vectors.

1. VAT increase
    Starting from January 1, 2026, the base VAT rate in Russia has been increased to 22%. For the furniture industry, where materials account for a significant portion of costs, the effect was instantaneous. The tax burden affects the entire supply chain, from the purchase of raw materials to logistics and finished products. Manufacturers have already revised their budgets for the year, including additional costs in the retail price.

2. Sanctions on accessories and dependence on imports
    In the summer of 2025, the European Union banned the supply of furniture fittings to Russia as part of the 18th package of sanctions. According to AMDPR President Alexander Shestakov, this was a critical blow: many manufacturers still depend on imported components.

    Although the import substitution process has been launched, it is proceeding slowly. According to experts, dependence on imported components remains in a number of positions: functional fittings (hinges, guides), fabrics, paints, paint and varnish materials. The production of complex fittings in Russia is often unprofitable due to the scale: in order for the plant to pay off, it is necessary to produce more than the entire industry requires, while the products may be inferior to their Chinese counterparts in price and quality.

The import substitution paradox: the share of imports in furniture consumption fell from 41.3% in 2020 to 18.7% in 2025, and Russian production more than doubled. However, high-quality components and complex components still come from abroad, mainly from China. China's share among importers of furniture products has reached 71%.

3. Staff shortages and rising wages
    The continuing shortage of qualified professionals — especially technologists, furniture designers, assemblers, and equipment operators — is forcing companies to raise wages in order to retain staff. The growth of the wage fund directly increases the cost of production. The shortage of personnel is particularly acute in engineering specialties: there are few competent designers who can work with calculations, loads and technological tolerances on the market.

4. Logistics and currency volatility
    Rising costs for logistics, equipment maintenance, and financing also contribute to the cost increase. A significant portion of raw materials and paints and varnishes depend on imports, so currency volatility creates additional pressure. With the weakening of the ruble, according to Kitchen Yard experts, the price growth corridor may expand from the base 5-7% to 10-15%.

    5. Lowering the threshold for the simplified taxation system
    Maxim Valetsky, co-founder of the Mr.Doors furniture studio, added that changes in the tax regime for small businesses (lowering the threshold for tax payments) also create an additional burden on small manufacturers. Many of them are either looking for investments or are forced to close.

Key indicators of the Russian furniture market:

Forecast: what will 2026 be like for the furniture market?

    The opinions of experts and market participants on the future dynamics are divided, but they agree on one thing: prices will continue to rise.

Alexander Shestakov, president of AMDPR and CEO of the First Furniture Factory, expects that by the end of the year the increase in furniture prices will be moderate and, while maintaining the current macroeconomic situation, will not exceed inflation at the level of 5-7%.

Sergey Shikhov, CEO of the interior company Mr.Doors, previously predicted a more significant increase in prices — by 9-10% compared to 2025.

    Experts of the Kitchen Yard brand give a basic forecast of 5-7%, but warn that in case of unfavorable exchange rate dynamics, a jump to 10-15% is possible.

    Nina Belova from Hoff notes that consumers are increasingly shifting to more budget segments amid rising prices and falling real incomes. This is confirmed by Avito's data: the share of furniture and decor sales in retail reached 51%, an increase of 6 percentage points year-on-year.

    Vladimir Sedov, the founder of Ascona, had previously not ruled out that in 2026 the volume of the furniture market could decrease by at least 25%, based on the experience of the crises of 2008 and 2014.

What does this mean for consumers and producers?

    For consumers, 2026 will be a time of austerity. Kitchens and cabinets will become more expensive faster than other furniture, and individual projects will become even faster than serial ones. Buying used furniture and reorienting to budget segments will become a massive phenomenon.

    For manufacturers, the situation is twofold: on the one hand, they are forced to raise prices to cover rising costs. On the other hand, falling demand limits the opportunities for margin improvement. Those who can will survive.:

•     - to localize the production of components as much as possible;
•     - find reliable suppliers in Asia (primarily in China);
•     - optimize production processes and logistics;
•     - refocus on budget lines and modular solutions.

The key conclusion is that the Russian furniture market entered a zone of turbulence in 2026. Falling demand, rising costs, and structural changes in the economy have created a unique situation where manufacturers are forced to raise prices, losing customers. For consumers, this means an inevitable rise in prices, especially noticeable in the most sought—after categories - kitchens and storage systems. A way out of this spiral is possible only with the stabilization of the macroeconomic situation and the successful completion of import substitution in critical component segments.

Tags: #Russia #furniture market #prices #kitchen furniture #cabinets #AMDPR #inflation #import substitution #sanctions