Weekly report on the wood chips market in China

China Wood Chips Market Weekly Report: regional price divergence, cost transfer, and forecast for the second half of 2026

    The domestic wood chips market in China is undergoing a four-dimensional restructuring driven by policy (national standard GB/T 7909-2017), pulp futures, raw material supplies, and demand for finished paper. Regional price divergence is intensifying: in Guangxi, prices are falling amid weak demand, in Shandong they are at a minimum, and in Dongguan there is a false short-term rebound. The negative chain of cost transfer from finished paper to raw materials blocks the recovery of suppliers' profits. In the second half of the year, the key variables will be pulp prices, seasonal peak demand for paper, and regional inventory cycles.

1. Regional price divergence: Guangxi is falling, Shandong is stable, Dongguan is fluctuating

Guangxi (eucalyptus crumbs as a cause of decline):
    Demand for bamboo chips remained low: Chenghui Paper (Guangxi) suspended purchases of bamboo chips for 15 days. The price of Sun Paper's bamboo disc chips decreased by 40 yuan compared to the peak in May, to 1,140 yuan per ton.

A minimum price level is maintained in Shandong Province:
    Sun Paper maintained stable prices for poplar wood chips — 1,300 yuan/ton, for pine wood chips — 1,310 yuan/ton. Various regional price barriers are caused by extensive procurement networks and strategies for self-sufficiency of plants.

False short-term bounce in Dongguan:
    The price of eucalyptus chips in Dongguan increased by 40 yuan to 1,250 yuan per ton. However, this is only a passive accumulation of stocks caused by a reduction in supplies. The 12-day suspension of pine chip harvesting once again confirms the pressure on the supply chain.

2. Negative cost transfer chain: from finished paper to raw materials

    The wood chips market is under pressure from the downward trend in prices for pulp and finished paper.

The chain of negative transmission:
    Port pulp reserves amount to 2.298 million tons (slow inventory reduction) → weak reference prices for pulp → paper mills are reducing budgets for the purchase of wood chips → continuous decline in prices for raw materials for the production of wood chips.

    So far, the increase in prices for finished paper has not affected the sectors involved in the production of wood chips, which blocks the recovery of profits for suppliers of raw materials.

3. Long-term structural shifts of the market

The impact of politics: National standard GB/T 7909-2017
    The standard expands the range of applications of hardwood wood chips, increasing the proportion of eucalyptus chips throughout the country. However, the inconsistent implementation of the standard in small and medium-sized paper mills leads to an increase in inter-regional price differences.

Restructuring of imported models (data for the full year 2025)

Conclusion: Lower imports and a limited supply of coniferous wood chips (less than 3% of the total) further stimulate demand for alternatives from hardwood — eucalyptus and poplar.

4. Plant development strategy and forecast for the second half of 2026

Competition for self-sufficiency
    Large integrated plants create raw material procurement networks with a length of up to 1,000 kilometers. The base in Chengming-Huanggang pays 15% more for local pine chips, reflecting the obvious geographical differences in cost.

Three key factors for monitoring in the second half of the year

Short-term forecast
    Wood chip prices will fluctuate within ±20 yuan/ton without a clear upward trend.

Price recovery in the second half of 2026 can occur only when the reduction of pulp stocks in ports coincides with the seasonal peak in demand for paper.

The main conclusions for market participants

    The Chinese wood chip production sector is simultaneously changing under the influence of:

•     - National standards (GB/T 7909-2017);
•     - pulp futures;
•     - reserves of natural raw materials;
•     - demand for the final paper.
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Recommendations:

• - Wood chip suppliers: it is necessary to constantly monitor regional price gaps and inventory cycles in order to optimize sales times. Eucalyptus in Guangxi is still under pressure, poplar in Shandong is stable.
• - Paper mill purchasing teams: it is necessary to use the moment of falling prices in Guangxi to accumulate stocks, but keep a close eye on pulp futures (the 4,800 yuan level).
• - To pulp merchants: it should be borne in mind that the recovery of prices for pulp and, consequently, for wood chips is possible only if two factors coincide: a decrease in port stocks of pulp and a seasonal peak in demand for paper.
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Key indicators of China's wood chips market:

Result

    The wood chips market in China is in a structural correction phase in the first half of 2026. Regional price gaps (Guangxi vs Shandong) create both risks and opportunities. The negative cost transfer from finished paper to raw materials is blocking price growth for now. However, in the second half of the year, if several factors coincide (a decrease in port stocks, a seasonal peak in demand for paper, and stabilization of pulp futures), a moderate price recovery is possible.

    A key signal for the market: the lower limit for eucalyptus chips in Nanning is 1,140 yuan/ton. If prices fall below this level, we can expect a response from suppliers (reduction of shipments) and, as a result, a trend reversal.

Tags: #China #wood chips market #pulp and paper industry #prices #imports #eucalyptus #poplar #cellulose futures #GB_T_7909_2017