Lumber exports from Russia decreased by 18.5% in the first half of 2026

Lumber exports from Russia decreased by 18.5% in the first half of 2026, despite strong demand from China

    In the first half of 2026, Russia exported 9.7 million cubic meters of lumber, which is 18.5% less than a year earlier. At the same time, China retained its status as the largest buyer of Russian timber products, accounting for 59% of all shipments. The decrease in physical export volumes occurs against the background of an increase in the cost of supplies, which indicates a change in the export structure towards products with higher added value.

Overall export dynamics

    According to the Federal Forestry Agency, in January–June 2026, exports of Russian lumber amounted to 9.7 million m3, which is 18.5% less than in the same period of 2025 (11.9 million m3).

    In the first half of 2026, 153.8 thousand electronic accompanying documents for export supplies were issued to the FGIS of the forestry complex.

China is the main sales market

    China has traditionally remained the main buyer of Russian timber products. In six months, 6.4 million m3 of sawn timber was exported to this country, accounting for 59% of the total supply.

Other major buyers:

•     - Uzbekistan
•     - Kazakhstan
•     - Kyrgyzstan
•     - Egypt
•     - Iran
•     - Turkey

    In total, Russian lumber was supplied to 40 friendly countries.

Export structure: coniferous species dominate

    Softwood lumber is the main export, accounting for 95.1% of the total volume. Hardwoods account for:

    Exports of roundwood, coniferous and valuable hardwoods are still prohibited. Lumber and products of deep wood processing are supplied to foreign markets.

What does this data mean?

    The decrease occurred in the physical volume of supplies. At the same time, previously published statistics from the Federal Customs Service showed that the cost of exporting timber products (HS codes 44-49) decreased by only 6.4% in January–May.

    This suggests that:

•     - The reduction in volumes turned out to be more noticeable than the decrease in export revenue.
•     - Russian exporters are reorienting to products with higher added value (planed products, glued beams, house kits).
•     - Prices for Russian lumber in foreign markets remain relatively stable.

Key indicators of lumber exports from Russia:

Reasons for the decline in exports

1. - Reduction of supplies to China: In the first quarter of 2026, shipments of softwood lumber to China fell by 26% to 2.6 million m3. This reflects a general decline in demand in the Chinese market due to the stagnation of the construction sector and the growth of domestic production.
2. - Logistical constraints: The congestion of the Eastern landfill, low turnover of wagons and high transportation tariffs limit the possibilities of increasing exports.
3. - Strong ruble exchange rate: The high exchange rate of the national currency makes Russian lumber less competitively priced in foreign markets.
4. - Reorientation to the domestic market: With falling export earnings, manufacturers are trying to sell products domestically, although domestic demand is also limited by stagnation in construction.

Importance for the Chinese market

    For Chinese importers of Russian timber products, the current situation has several important aspects:

1. - Reduction of the supply from Russia: An 18.5% decrease in exports means that Chinese buyers will compete for a smaller volume of Russian products with other importers (Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Egypt).
2. - Rising prices: A reduction in physical volumes with relatively stable revenue indicates an increase in average export prices. This may make Russian lumber less attractive compared to products from New Zealand, Canada, and European countries.
3. - Increased competition with other suppliers: Canada and Belarus are increasing their presence in the Chinese market, offering competitive prices. This could lead to a further decline in Russia's share of the Chinese market.
4. - Diversification of Russian exports: Russia is actively looking for alternative markets in Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa. This can reduce dependence on the Chinese market in the long run.
5. - Deep processing products: The ban on the export of roundwood stimulates the development of deep processing in Russia. Chinese buyers can expect an increase in the supply of finished products (house kits, glued beams, planed products), rather than raw lumber.

Forecast

    In the second half of 2026, it is unlikely that lumber exports from Russia will recover to the level of 2025. Key factors that will determine the dynamics:

• - Demand in China: The recovery of the Chinese construction sector (expected no earlier than 2027) may support demand for Russian lumber.
• - Ruble exchange rate: a weakening of the ruble to 90 rubles/$ could increase the competitiveness of Russian exporters.
• - Logistics: the expansion of "bottlenecks" at the Eastern landfill and the modernization of the port infrastructure can increase capacity.
• - New markets: increased shipments to Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and the Middle East may partially offset the decline in exports to China.

Result

    Lumber exports from Russia in the first half of 2026 decreased by 18.5% to 9.7 million m3. China remains the largest buyer, but its share may decrease as Russian exports diversify and competition from other suppliers increases. A decrease in physical export volumes with relatively stable revenue indicates a transition to products with higher added value. For Chinese importers, this means a reduction in the supply of Russian lumber and a possible increase in prices, which makes alternative sources of supply more attractive.

Tags: #Russia #exporting lumber #China #coniferous forests #forestry #statistics #Forestry