Softwood lumber imports to China are declining

Softwood lumber imports to China are declining as demand, costs and supply change market conditions

    Wood imports to China declined sharply in the first half of 2026, with the decline concentrated in the softwood lumber segment, as weak construction demand, higher import costs and changing supply patterns put pressure on trade.

General dynamics of wood imports

    According to Chinese customs, the total volume of wood imports in the first six months of 2026 reached 10.66 million m3, which is 12% less than in the same period of 2025. At the same time, the cost of imports decreased by only 1% to USD 3.076 billion, while the average CIF price increased by 13% to USD 289/m3.

    This indicates that the decrease in imports is mainly due to physical volumes, rather than the price factor: buyers are reducing purchases, and suppliers are forced to offer more expensive products amid rising costs.

Softwood lumber imports: the main drop

    The import of softwood lumber decreased much more than the total import of wood. The decrease was 21% compared to the same period in 2025.

The reasons for the reduction in imports of softwood lumber

1. Weak demand in the construction sector
    The Chinese real estate market remains in protracted stagnation. In 2026, housing sales are projected to decline by 6% and investment in housing construction to fall by 11%. This directly reduces the demand for softwood lumber used in construction, formwork and frame house construction.

2. The growth of domestic wood production
    Chinese plantations of fast-growing species (eucalyptus, poplar, Masson pine) are entering the ripeness phase. Domestic wood production in 2025 reached 144 million m3 (+5% by 2024), which replaces some of the imported supplies, especially in the segment of mass varieties.

3. Changing the supply chain
    Russia, the largest supplier of softwood lumber to China, reduced shipments by 28.7% in the first quarter of 2026. At the same time, Canada increased supplies by 26%, redirecting products from the American market to the Chinese market due to high duties in the United States. However, this did not compensate for the overall drop.

    4. High import costs
    A 13% increase in the average CIF price (to $289/m3) indicates an increase in the cost of imports. It's connected with:

•     - increased transportation costs (increased freight, logistical problems);
•     - strengthening of the ruble exchange rate (for Russian suppliers);
•     - the growth of duties and charges in a number of exporting countries.

    5. Seasonal factors
    The first quarter of 2026 included the celebration of the Chinese New Year, which traditionally reduces business activity and procurement volumes.

Changing the supply structure by country

Key indicators of softwood lumber imports to China (first half of 2026):

Forecast for the second half of 2026

Short-term forecast:

•     - Softwood lumber imports will continue to decline in the second half of the year, but the rate of decline may slow down.
•     - A revival in demand is possible only with the recovery of China's construction sector, which is projected no earlier than 2027.
•     - Russian supplies can stabilize, but this requires an increase in domestic demand in China or a reduction in logistics costs.
•  

Long-term forecast (2026-2030):

•     - China will increase domestic wood production, gradually replacing imports in mass segments.
•     - Imports will shift towards products with high added value (premium hardwoods, engineered wood, certified products).
•     - Russia, Canada and Europe will be forced to diversify their sales markets, as Chinese imports of softwood lumber will decrease structurally rather than cyclically.

Importance for the Chinese market

1. For Chinese importers, a reduction in softwood lumber imports means the need to look for alternative sources (for example, increased purchases in Canada, the Baltic States, and Southeast Asia) or switch to domestic supplies.
2. For Chinese manufacturers: reduced import competition creates opportunities to increase production in the domestic market, especially in segments where imports were dominant.
3. For the construction industry: rising prices for imported lumber (due to the growth of CIF) may encourage the transition to alternative materials (metal, concrete) or to domestic supplies.
4. For international suppliers: China is no longer a "bottomless market" for softwood lumber. Suppliers need to actively seek new markets (India, Southeast Asia, the Middle East) and switch to high-value-added products.

Result

    Softwood lumber imports to China decreased by 21% in the first half of 2026 amid weak construction demand, increased domestic production and a change in supply structure. Russia remains the largest supplier, but its share is declining, while Canada is increasing its presence. The average import price (CIF) increased by 13%, indicating an increase in the cost of supplies. In the long term, China will continue to increase domestic wood production, gradually replacing imports in mass segments. For international suppliers, this means the need to diversify markets and switch to high-value-added products.

Tags: #China #import of coniferous lumber #building_question #import_support #structure of shipments #custom_statistics