Japan's plan to increase the use of local timber

Japan's plan to increase the use of local wood is a warning to European suppliers

    Japan, one of the world's largest and most stable importers of wood, is launching a policy aimed at radically increasing the use of its own wood. The target is to provide 49% of wood supplies through domestic production by 2035. This implies an increase in domestic consumption by 7 million cubic meters per year compared to the current level. For European and Canadian sawmills, which have been supplying high-quality lumber to Japan for decades, this is a long-term signal that cannot be ignored.

Goals and context

    The Japanese government has set an ambitious goal: to increase the share of domestic wood in total consumption to 49% by 2035. To achieve this indicator, it is necessary to increase annual domestic consumption by 7 million m3 compared to the current level.

    The policy is implemented within the framework of the "Society based on the use of forest resources" strategy. The main motive is not only environmental (reducing emissions from imports), but also economic: support for mountainous and rural regions where forestry is the mainstay of employment, as well as reducing dependence on external supplies in the face of global uncertainty.

Key figures

Why is this important for the global market?

    Japan is one of the oldest and most predictable importers of wood in the world. Its market has historically been open to suppliers from:

• - Canada (Douglas fir, cedar, spruce);
• - Europe (Finnish, Swedish, German spruce and pine);
• - Russia (larch, pine, spruce – before sanctions, now supplies are limited);
• - USA (Douglas fir, pine).

    An increase in the share of domestic timber to 49% means that the import quota will decrease from ~64% to ~51%. In absolute terms– this is a reduction in imports by several million cubic meters per year. This is a serious challenge for European and Canadian sawmills who rely on the Japanese market as a stable sales channel.

Key indicators of the Japanese forest market:

Success factors of Japanese politics

    Achieving the 49% goal will depend on several key factors:

1. - Government support: subsidies for reforestation, modernization of logging equipment, personnel training.
2. - Changing building regulations: encouraging the use of local timber in frame housing (2x4, platform construction), which is now dominated by imported lumber.
3. - Development of engineered wood: CLT, LVL, glued beams from Japanese cryptomeria (sugi) and other local breeds.
4. - Price competitiveness: Japanese wood should be no more expensive than imported wood. This requires a reduction in logistical costs and an increase in logging efficiency.

Risks and limitations for Japan

• - Quality: Japanese cryptomeria has traditionally been considered less durable than northern spruce or pine. However, breeding programs and wood modification technologies (heat treatment, impregnation) are gradually solving this problem.
• - Cost of harvesting: in mountainous areas of Japan, logging is more expensive than in Canadian or Scandinavian lowland forests. This may restrain the growth of volumes.
• - Labor resources: Japan's forestry industry is aging, and there are not enough young fellers and equipment operators. Without an influx of personnel, an increase in harvesting by 7 million m3 per year may not be feasible.

What does this mean for European and Canadian suppliers?

    There will be no reduction in imports in the next 2-3 years. Japan will need time to increase its logging and processing capacity. However, the direction of Japanese policy is already obvious: the long–term trend is to replace imports with domestic timber.

Recommendations for European and Canadian exporters

1. - Diversify sales markets: strengthen its presence in Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, and China (where demand for softwood lumber is still high, although it is decreasing).
2. - To switch to high-value–added products: to supply Japan not with raw lumber, but with ready-made house kits, CLT panels, glued beams - where Japanese wood cannot yet compete in quality.
3. - Invest in technologies: heat treatment, wood modification, impregnation – these are the areas where European and Canadian manufacturers maintain a competitive advantage.
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Conclusion

    Japan's target of securing 49% of wood supplies from domestic production by 2035 is a signal to all participants in the global forest market. So far, it does not pose an immediate threat to European and Canadian sawmills, but long-term trends indicate an inevitable reduction in import quotas. Those companies that rebuild in time, reorient themselves to other markets and invest in deep processing will be able to maintain their positions. Those who remain within the framework of the old model (the supply of bulk lumber) risk losing the Japanese market by the early 2030s.

Tags: #Japan #forestry #import of wood #domestic consumption #construction wood #sugi #European suppliers #Canadian suppliers