Wood Pulp Prices in China

Wood pulp prices in China initially declined in August and then rose; fluctuations within a certain range are expected in the short term

    According to the SunSirs analytical system, wood pulp prices initially fluctuated at a low level in August, and then quickly recovered in the second half of the month due to supply disruptions from abroad. The key factors in August are the concentration of shutdowns at foreign pulp mills, wildfires in Canada, and the end of the traditional off—season for the paper industry. However, high port stocks and weak final demand continue to constrain price growth.

Price dynamics in August

    As of August 28, 2026:

    Softwood pulp prices remained stable, while hardwood pulp showed moderate growth due to the limited supply of individual brands.

Suggestion: stops abroad and forest fires

Softwood pulp (optimistic expectations):

    In August, there was a concentration of production and maintenance shutdowns at overseas pulp mills. The situation was aggravated by wildfires in the Canadian regions of production. Expectations of a reduction in future supplies of softwood pulp served as a direct catalyst for the price recovery in the second half of the month.

    However, the overall global excess of wood pulp remains unchanged. New foreign facilities continue to be put into operation. Recent production shutdowns and maintenance have mainly affected high-cost capacities, rather than representing a systemic, large-scale reduction in production.

Deciduous cellulose:

    Global stocks of hardwood pulp remain relatively sufficient. The spot shortage is limited to only a few niche brands, which does not create an overall shortage in the market.

Port stocks: high and volatile

    In August, the stock level in the ports showed the following dynamics:

Key indicators:

•     - The level of reserves fluctuated between 2.22 and 2.29 million tons, a relatively high level for the year.
•     - Stocks did not fall to the range of low levels.
•     - The decrease in stocks in the middle of the month was caused by the main demand from processing enterprises, rather than large-scale replenishment of stocks.
•     - With the recovery of arrivals at the end of the month, stocks increased again.

Conclusion: high port stocks remain a key factor constraining price growth.

Imports: reduction of foreign orders

    In July, domestic imports of wood pulp amounted to 2.73 million tons, which is 6.4% less than in the previous month.

Reasons for the reduction:

•     - The cost of importing softwood pulp temporarily exceeded domestic spot prices, which led to an inversion of the import margin.
•     - Traders have voluntarily reduced their overseas orders.

Forecast: Shipping volumes are expected to decrease over the next 2-3 months, which will reduce the load on port warehouses.

Demand: completion of the off-season, but without active replenishment

    August marked the end of the traditional off-season for the paper industry. Although current market conditions remain weak, it is expected that there will be a peak season ahead.

The dynamics of demand by category:

Procurement strategy:

•     - Paper mills bought pulp mainly based on urgent, basic needs.
•     - There were no large-scale preventive restockings.
•     - The transfer of the price increase to the finished paper proved to be ineffective, which limited the restoration of profitability of manufacturers.

Conclusion: Even when pulp prices recovered, end users were unable to pass the costs on to consumers, which in turn limited the potential for pulp price increases.

Key Pulp market indicators (August 2026):

Futures market: sharp rise on the news, then consolidation

    In August, pulp futures prices initially tested lows before rising sharply amid supply-related news, and then fluctuated at high levels as the market comprehended the changes.

Futures data (August 28):

Analysts' forecast

    Analysts of the wood pulp market from SunSirs believe that the August market situation was characterized by a confrontation of multidirectional factors:

Increased pressure:

•     - Expectations of a reduction in supplies due to shutdowns of foreign factories.
•     - Wildfires in Canada.
•     - The end of the off-season and waiting for the peak season.

Downward pressure:

•     - Consistently high stocks in ports (2.22–2.29 million tons).
•     - Limited demand from processors.
•     - Inefficient transmission of price increases for finished paper.
•     - Global excess of pulp and the introduction of new capacities.

Short-term forecast:

•     - Pulp prices will fluctuate in a certain range.
•     - If the replenishment of stocks during the peak season in September does not meet expectations, prices will face downward pressure.
•     - The key factor to watch is the dynamics of port stocks and demand from paper mills.

Importance for market participants

1. - For pulp producers: the August price recovery creates an opportunity for higher quotations, but high inventories limit the growth potential.
2. - For paper mills: current pulp prices remain at an acceptable level. However, the low marginality of finished products limits purchasing budgets.
3. - For traders: the volatility of the futures market creates opportunities for short-term speculation. It is worth keeping an eye on the dynamics of port stocks and news about foreign stops.
4. - For investors: September-October is a key period for monitoring. If the peak season brings the expected recovery in demand, pulp prices may receive an additional boost.

Result

    The August wood pulp market in China showed a classic pattern: prices initially declined amid high inventories, and then recovered on expectations of reduced supplies due to shutdowns of foreign factories and wildfires in Canada. Coniferous cellulose remained stable, while deciduous cellulose showed moderate growth (+3.42%). However, high port stocks (2.22–2.29 million tons) and weak final demand continue to constrain growth. In the short term, prices are expected to fluctuate in a certain range. The key factor for the market will be the dynamics of inventory replenishment during the peak season of September–October.

Tags: #China #woodcellulose market #coniferous cellulose #larch cellulose #prices #port stocks #imports #demand #futures #SunSirs