China is still the main buyer for India.

China is still the main buyer, but India is changing the balance of power in New Zealand's timber exports

The New Zealand timber export market is entering spring, with China providing relatively stable sales, while India is still in a state of seasonal decline. However, in the long term, the situation in India is developing in the opposite direction: exports of New Zealand timber to India have tripled in three years, reaching 193 million New Zealand dollars, even before the recently signed free trade agreement came into force. India is gradually turning from a secondary buyer into a strategic partner capable of changing the balance of power in the market.

China: stable sales and limited stocks

China continues to be the largest buyer of New Zealand timber. The situation in the Chinese market is characterized by the following indicators:

Limited stocks and stable daily consumption keep prices for New Zealand Class A wood at $125-130/m3 CFR. The slight price increase reflects continued demand from Chinese processors, despite the general weakness of the construction sector in China.

For New Zealand exporters, China remains a reliable market with predictable demand. However, the growth rate of the Chinese market is slowing down: domestic wood production in China is growing, while the construction sector remains stagnant. This means that New Zealand suppliers need to look for additional markets to diversify.

India: seasonal decline, but huge potential

In the short term, the situation in India is more complicated:

Current problems:

Long-term prospects:

• New Zealand timber exports to India tripled in three years, reaching 193 million New Zealand dollars.
• The Free Trade Agreement between New Zealand and India (recently signed) creates additional opportunities for growth.
• India is actively developing the construction sector, infrastructure and furniture manufacturing, which creates a steady demand for lumber.

India is gradually turning from a secondary buyer into a strategic partner capable of compensating for the slowdown in the Chinese market.

"Comparison" of markets: China vs India

Key indicators of New Zealand timber exports:

Value for the global market

1. - New Zealand is diversifying exports. China remains a key market, but India is becoming an increasingly important destination. This reduces the dependence of New Zealand exporters on one market.
2. - India is a new demand driver. The growth of the construction sector, urbanization and the development of the furniture industry make India one of the most promising markets for wood exporters.
3. - The Free Trade Agreement will accelerate growth. After the New Zealand-India agreement comes into force, New Zealand timber exports to India may grow even more.
4. - China remains the largest, but its growth is slowing. China's domestic wood production is growing, while the construction sector is stagnating. This means that New Zealand exporters will have to actively develop alternative markets.

Prospects

Short-term (3-6 months):

• - China will remain a stable market with limited price increases.
• - India will continue its seasonal decline, but demand will begin to recover towards the end of the year.
• - The Free Trade Agreement will begin to produce the first results.

Long-term (1-3 years):

• - India may become the second most important market for New Zealand timber after China.
• - Exports to India may double or triple if the construction sector continues to grow.
• - New Zealand will actively diversify export markets, reducing dependence on China.

Bottom line

China remains the main buyer of New Zealand timber, providing stable sales and maintaining prices at $125-130/m3 CFR. However, India is changing the balance of power: New Zealand timber exports to India have tripled in three years to 193 million NZD, and the free trade agreement opens up new opportunities. In the short term, India is experiencing a seasonal slowdown due to the monsoon and unsold stocks, but in the long term, it is becoming a strategic partner capable of offsetting the slowdown in the Chinese market. For New Zealand exporters, this means the need to actively develop the Indian direction, diversify markets and adapt to changing market conditions.

Tags: #New Zealand #wood exports #China #India #coniferous forests #free trade agreements #prices #stocks #sawmills

Переведено [url=http/translate.yandex.ru/]«Яндекс.Переводчиком»[/url]

Edited Moderator (Sept. 15, 2026 20:26:16)